WARNING: This is an automatic computer generated transcript.  The computer makes some mistakes in its translation and therefore this is NOT 100% accurate. Use as a Quick Reference Guide Only and double check your understanding against your own analysis. Consult your broker or financial adviser before making any investment or trading decisions

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The Australian stock market has rallied, the US stock market has rallied, the Chinese stock market has rallied, every stock market has rallied since Friday.

The European stock markets are coming into sell zones.

The US stock market has gone little bit further than it should in some cases but the NASDAQ has not gone to new highs.

There are probably too many happy smiling faces in the equities world at the moment.

In the world equities speed webinar, JR was reading out the happy, chirpy, high level predictions for much higher prices in the Australian stock market.

When I hear them I immediately start thinking… Interesting but probably not possible.

Probably a better word is not likely.

 

XAO.ASX

The All Ordinaries is at the top of the negative cloud yet again.

It’s at this point that it failed last time got up.

Now I think it’s had a good run and that’s all well and good but I don’t think that it’s as wonderful as we may think just yet.

So it needs a bit of a pullback.

We increased our self managed super fund allocations by 3% market on open on Monday and by 2% on dips on Monday.

To the extent that you found a dip that means you increased by 5%.

 

XJO.ASX

On the weekly timeframe we also see that this is weaker than the all very ordinaries.

So at the moment weak and still be compelled to believe that this is not necessarily the bull market that we were led to believe it was.

Notice the volume last week was not that inspiring.

This week is kind of a little bit lower than last week and it’s certainly not up to all other weeks before,  a couple of weeks’ ago volume.

So this something a bit suspect so we need to be circumspect.

We also see it on the daily chart.  It is up the top of the positive cloud and a slippage back down below 5330 is a good thing for the Bears.

Volume has been okay on the rally.

But the but rally has some unfortunate friends supporting it.

The unfortunate friend is that Malcolm has been returned but, from what I can see, his power is somewhat tenuous relying on Bob Katter.

And  while ideally we love the antics of Bob Katter, he’s not somebody I would rely on too heavily.

He is a man whose heart is bigger than his brain capacity.

 

XFJ.ASX Financials Index

This has rallied to the bottom of the positive cloud on the daily charts.

It’s not something we can totally rely on here to put value into the rest of the index, the big index.

If it was to have rallied it should have got done a lot better.

XFJ.ASX is way away from the bottom of the negative cloud as well.

So at this point in my life I think the banks could be a little bit dubious.

Which I believe is something I said on Monday.

 

ANZ.ASX

Investors timeframe:

No change to the analysis whatsoever.

Intermediate timeframe:

Managing to head-butt on a couple of important lines.

If it gets rejected from here expect it down to $23.12.

Stoploss if Long would be and should be below $23.50.

 

CBA.ASX

Investors timeframe:

No change to the analysis.

Intermediate timeframe:

Almost exactly the same as ANZ.ASX but with even less interesting volume characteristics.

Interesting or inspiring?  Neither of.

In fact, it’s less inspiring than ANZ.

And cycle wise we are in this little topping time for the CBA which generally goes down into mid-August.

That’s something I hadn’t really tweaked to before.

 

NAB.ASX

Investors timeframe:

No change to the analysis on the investors timeframe:

Intermediate timeframe:

So far not even managing to get really clearly above last week’s high.

And we may see it grovelling for another 2 or 3 weeks.

If you are long, safety stop is below $24.56.

 

WBC.ASX Westpac

Investors timeframe:

Almost half of the month is now gone.

And yet we seem to have one 6th of the volume on Westpac.

The wonderful thing about Westpac is that it’s got an inside range bar on the monthly chart.

That’s about it.

Intermediate timeframe:

The wonderful thing on the weekly charts is that it gone up a little bit from last week’s high.

However, it hasn’t broken an old top at $29.90 so only get excited above $30.

It’s nice to see that it should have bottomed but maybe you get a chance at having a go for a tighter stoploss at $28.36.

We also notice on this rally, volume has not been sparkling.

 

XMJ.ASX

Investors timeframe:

On the bigger timeframe we can see that it’s gotten above some old lows which is important and it may want to visit towards 9863.

We also noticed Iron Ore has rallied and is heading towards $50 a ton which was our next level target.

The rally in the Iron Ore market is not that strong in terms of volume.

Whether volume is useful in its’ market I’m not sure about that.

Intermediate timeframe:

On the weekly chart we see in it busting out of the negative cloud against the new normal cycle points for lower into October and November.

 

BHP.ASX

Investors timeframe:

BHP.ASX also suffering from unconvincing volume on the upside.

Maybe it might get better?

Intermediate timeframe:

It’s kind of worked its’ way into the negative cloud by going sideways really.

While the rally last week was in declining volume, the rally the week before was also in declining volume so we have to label this as suspicious, rather than auspicious.

Stoploss would, should be at $18.50 if you are long.

 

RIO.ASX

Investors timeframe:

It is rallying this month but not on higher volume.

Today is the 13th day of the month of July which means there is another 18 days to go.

If you take a ratio of that volume to the last months’ volume you don’t have any volume on the upside.

Intermediate timeframe:

It’s working its way into the negative cloud which where to the top of the negative cloud I said could bring it up to $50 which is always the area it doesn’t like.

Yesterday it saw $49.96, and may go to $51.68 if it gets excited.

 

XEJ.ASX Energies Index

Really kind of dull!

There does appear to be a bit of a tendency to drop off for the next couple of weeks.

 

WPL.ASX Woodside Petroleum

Investors timeframe:

The milky bars are not on Woodside Petroleum.

It cannot afford it.

Buy a break above $28.50 if you like this.

Stoploss should be below $26.36.

Don’t have many fantasies of it going higher.

Intermediate timeframe:

We can see it rallying a little bit on declining volume.

Cycle wise it still not flash until mid-August and even mid-November.

If you are long, have your stoploss below $25.90.

If you do want go long, expect $28.72.

 

EDE.ASX Eden Energy

Investors timeframe:

The volume characteristics are a little bit suspicious but the pattern says that this is going higher at some stage and probably goes to $.70.

We have other targets at $.47.

If you are long have your stoploss below $.16.

Intermediate timeframe:

We are seeing a little bit of a decline of volume as it’s pulling back so maybe can expect down towards $.20 for a serious buying opportunity with a stoploss below $.18.

If it breaks up and runs above $.26 before that, then buy with a stoploss below $.21 hoping for $.29.

 

FAR.ASX

Investors timeframe:

Not too much fun unless it breaks above 8.5 cents and then you’d expect it for a run towards $.10.

You would need a stoploss below 7.5 cents.

Intermediate timeframe:

Volume on this rally is not that inspirational nor is the cycle, so we would expect it be hands off for the time being.

 

XGD.ASX

Investors timeframe:

The gold index has stuck its head above the negative cloud on the monthly timeframe.

The month however is not over.

So it there is a risk of the larger timeframe downtrend taking it back for a little bit of a run down towards 4000.

Intermediate timeframe:

This week usually it tops and heads back down into mid-August.

So if you feel like banking cash on gold stocks is not a bad thing.

 

MOY.ASX Millennium

Investors timeframe:

On this timeframe we can see that it’s close to the bottom of the negative cloud which is around about$.33.

If you are still long, have a stoploss at $.17.

Intermediate timeframe:

It’s been running well and I’d have to describe this pattern as a late runner and it can rally back into September so it’s not deadly and should be looking for $.33 at some stage .

Protective stoploss should be at $.17.

 

XHJ.ASX

Investors timeframe:

This is still in a bit of confusion, probably goes higher.

If you are long stop is at 20,400 Long Term.

Intermediate timeframe:

On the intermediate timeframe we can see that it’s bottomed fairly nicely and deserves a bit more press higher towards 22,000.

 

HSO.ASX Healthscope

Investors timeframe:

While it’s exciting to talk about a new healthcare stock that we haven’t spoken about for some time, Healthscope is not that exciting, building itself out of a couple, 3 sets at the moment with probably dips down to about $2.40 may be $2.42.

If you are currently long, stop is below $2.66.

Intermediate timeframe: 

Confused a little I’d say at the moment.

I’d say to expect an easy dip down to $2.60 with more likely $2.47 on the cards.

If it does break its’ head above $2.92 then it becomes a buy with a stoploss at $2.74 believing in $3.05.

 

XPJ.ASX

Last night we saw the US 30 year bonds come off fairly hard and the Australian 10 year bonds have come off and the US 10 year notes have come off.

So the property index pre-empted that move it would seem.

We did have targets that were probably a little bit lower than where it stopped and a pullback down to 1500 would be all well and good.

We notice there is some reasonable divergences on the ADX at the moment.

So maybe, just maybe, start to bank some cash in the property index stocks.

 

GMG.ASX Goodman Group

Investors timeframe:

It’s a bit confused as to whether it should stay above the old highs back from 2007.

Just in case it doesn’t, have a stoploss below $6.90.

Intermediate timeframe:

The pattern looks valid for another push higher, especially on a break above $7.38 and then we would look towards $7.75.

Currently if you are long on that timeframe have your stoploss at $7.

 

WFD.ASX

Investors timeframe:

Go figure This! The Aussie dollar goes up against the US dollar and Westfield goes up too.

We have some targets towards$11.79 or $11.95.

The closest target is $11.39.

The stoploss is at $10.48 if you are long.

Intermediate timeframe:

I’m not wholly in love with the way that it’s doing this but nonetheless it’s still going up so stoploss should be below $10.72 if you are long.

When I look back at the weekly chart I can see why I am a little bit not in love.

You might want to take some profit at $11.11.

 

XTJ.ASX

It’s not been trending up.

The previous pattern could be seen as a B Wave if it breaks down below 2050.

At the moment I’d say it’s probably a little bit tired and banking some cash is okay on a part position still hoping for 2135 until further notice.

 

CNU.ASX Chorus

Which I believe is a New Zealand company and I think it provides somewhat of the backbone to the Internet in New Zealand?

Investors timeframe:

This is running along nicely. It’s probably aided by a pusy Australian dollar.

The stoploss is $3.76 if you are long and $4.45 would appear to be a logical target for it to get to and probably turnaround.

A strong leader who polarises people’s opinions like John Keys is probably better than a man who wants to be everyone’s friend.

And John keys is made of George Soros so that would help – It’s amazing what you find out in the Zetland Coles supermarket on a Sunday night.

Intermediate timeframe:

Targeting $4.28.

We would have to think that at some stage it’s due for and right for a pullback down to about $3.69.

At the moment volume is still saying a little bit higher.

Stoploss needs to be at $4.02.

 

TPM.ASX

Investors timeframe:

It came back and held support on the lightest weight support that we could find.

It’s still probably moving higher towards $13.

Stoploss if Long is below $11.50.

It dipped but not deep enough to please anybody.

Intermediate timeframe:

Stoploss is at $11.72 if long.

You could buy a break above $12.12 with a stoploss below $11.85 in the belief of reaching towards $13.

Volume is a bit neither here nor there so more likely to stay in the triangle.

 

XSO.ASX

 

Small Ordinaries Index

Small ordinaries still seems to have friends and still seems to have trend.

Below 2350 it loses some friends.

But I would be happy to guess at 2500 as a target.

 

TOP 100 STOCKS

 

QBE.ASX

Investors timeframe:

It’s hung in so far and a close on a monthly basis below $10 would be a negative event.

However it’s still hanging in and could rally back up to $12.57 in it’s particularly boring fashion.

Intermediate timeframe:

If you are long, stop is at $10 hoping for $11.14, you would buy a break above $10.80.

 

SMALL AND MID CAP STOCKS

 

SUN.ASX

Investors timeframe:

It’s not as bad as the other banks.

Needs to clear above $13.25 to be good, or at least expunge its’ Demons down towards $9.65 or even $8.57 to be a long-term buy.

Should it clear above $13.25 expect $16.20.

Intermediate timeframe:

SUN.ASX coming up but not on exciting volume so we would expect about $13 for it’s target.

 

ISD.ASX

Investors timeframe:

Isentia has not been having fun since the end of 2015.

We could think about $2.28 as its’ deepest and more horrible target but overall the volume on the downside on the monthly charts is not great for this month.

It was light for last month so we might expect a visit of $3 or even $2.58.

Intermediate timeframe:

At the moment you would think about $3.40 or $3.25 which it has already reached as a get out of jail card.

I must say, given its’ structure, I’m not all that bearish on this timeframe so I wouldn’t be jumping out just yet.

The place to be bearish is around $3.77.  $2.35 on the downside.

 

TSN.ASX

Investors timeframe:

No change to the analysis yesterday where I said it was a buy.

Intermediate timeframe:

No change to the analysis that I said yesterday where I said it was a buy with a stoploss below 1.6 cents.

 

WSA.ASX

Investors timeframe:

We see WSA finally starting to show its’ full ambitions at $3.05 or $3.30 as the next big target.

stoploss can now be lifted to $2.40.

Intermediate timeframe:

We can see last week’s volume was having the tick of approval.

Stoploss this week should be at $2.48.

$2.88 is the presumptive target on the weekly charts, if it takes that out then it gets set for $3.05.

I would like to see a little bit more gumption in the trend but nonetheless it’s going up and that’s a good thing.

 

LYC.ASX

Investors timeframe:

This has reached the 6.5 cents target.

It has broken a  new monthly high.

Intermediate timeframe:

On the intermediate timeframe we can see it’s not bad a break above this point $.01 would be healthy looking for 7.7 cents, it’s even healthier on a break above 8.1 cents.

While volume is not awesome, it’s still probably going higher towards just under $.08.

So we won’t be taking any profit.  If you do feel like doing it, you would take one quarter or one 3rd.

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